October 3, 2022

The director of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said that climate change has weakened the ability of meteorologists to accurately forecast severe weather events.

in Article – Commodity Posted Sunday in Hindustan Times newspaperDr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra insisted that climate change has increased the unpredictability of weather patterns, making prediction more difficult.

“Climate change has increased atmospheric instability, which has led to increased convective activity – thunderstorms, lightning and heavy rains,” Mohapatra said. “The intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is also increasing.”

“This increase in the frequency of extreme weather events poses a challenge to forecasters,” he added. “Studies show that the ability to predict heavy rainfall is hampered by climate change.”

For this reason, IMD is increasing its monitoring network by adding radars, automatic weather stations, rain gauges, and satellites to improve accuracy in weather forecasts.

“Climate change is a reality and we need to plan all our activities accordingly,” Mohapatra said.

Despite tremendous scientific advances, weather forecasting has remained exemplary inaccurate due to the inherent unpredictability of weather and the nearly endless number of variables influencing the results, leading some scientists to question the less reliable climate predictions that extend into the coming decades.

Dr. Duane Thrischer, a Ph.D. climate scientist from Columbia University and NASA GISS who has done pioneering work on both proxy modeling of circular climate and of the agency’s ocean climate modeling, emphasized that climate models are intrinsically flawed.

Thresher stated that “climate models are just more complex/chaotic weather models, which have a theoretical ability to predict only a maximum of 10 days into the future”. “Predicting climate just decades or even years into the future is a lie, albeit useful for publication and funding.”

Thresher says scientists have climate “proxies” like tree rings and ice cores, as surrogates for real climate measurements. The conclusions reached were “inaccurate and unreliable beyond what is required for the conclusions drawn”.

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