The man who used to occupy the Oval Office was organizing rallies and endorsing candidates across the country in the primary season. And this past week has provided critical tests of his influence, from Michigan to Kansas, across Arizona and even Washington State.
Thanks to Trump’s strength within the Republican Party, we begin our weekly journey in numbers.
However, last week he provided evidence that Trump remains a center of power within the party. proportional to other data indicating that the former president May not be strong
As before, he remains a force to be reckoned with in the Republican Party.
Trump-backed candidates have passed important statewide primaries in Arizona, including the governor (where Trump’s candidate defeated the candidate endorsed by former Vice President Mike Pence), the US Senate, state attorney general, and secretary of state. They all deny the fact that Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election.
Similarly, in Michigan, Theodore Dixon, who endorsed Trump, won the Republican nomination for governor. And U.S. Representative Peter Major, who voted to impeach Trump last year after Jan. 6, was defeated in the Republican primary by another Trump-backed vote rejecter in the 3rd congressional district.
Trump’s Choice for Governor of Kansas (Derek Schmidt) won the primaries
The former president was very successful this primary season in GOP contests with no occupants or those with two legislators due to redistricting. By my count, his candidates have won less than 90% of the contested gubernatorial or congressional primaries that had neither incumbents nor two incumbents due to redistricting.
That’s a solid number, although down from the 96% primaries his candidates won in the 2020 cycle.
So far, it was the only major contest from last week that the Trump candidate lost in the Washington 4th District Open primary. Republican Representative Dan Newhouse advanced to the general election under the state’s two major statutes, even though he voted to impeach Trump and had to withstand a challenge from Trump-backed Lauren Kolb, who was in third place.
But even Newhouse’s advances prove that Trump remains a powerhouse in the Republican Party. As of Sunday, Newhouse had just over 25% of the primary vote and just 34% of those who voted for a district Republican candidate. That’s too weak for a member of Congress.
In fact, David Valadao of Newhouse, California, the only other Republican to date to vote to impeach Trump and reach the November ballot, received about 25% of the primary vote. And they both did so in the primaries where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, ran the same ballot with the two top vote-takers advancing into November — meaning there was plenty of non-Republican voting.
Trump’s success in the primaries this season should come as no surprise given the national opinion polls. It had a very favorable rating among Republicans in the low 1950s. That’s down from about 70% at the end of the 2020 campaign, but that means more than half of Republicans really like Trump. No other active candidate comes close to this level of adoration.
Speaking of candidates who are not Trump, few non-incumbents have cast ballots at or above where Trump is currently in early national presidential primary polls – he represents about 50% of the candidates. National Basic Voting
The non-Trump candidates who have done so in the modern primary era seem to be Democrats Al Gore, in 1998, and Hillary Clinton, in 2014. Both won their party’s nomination in the next presidential election.
The closest Republicans were George HW Bush in 1986 and George W. Bush in 1998. Both were in their low forties and would go on to win the Republican nomination.
While it’s true that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is ahead of Trump nationally, he’s still about 25 points behind him.
Perhaps the best way to understand Trump’s standing in the Republican Party is to look at the verbs “could” and “would.” Trump can be defeated if he decides to run for the Republican nomination. However, it will be difficult to overcome.
Blurry picture three months before election day
Before we get all the talk of 2024, there is a big election going to be held this year! There are only three months left until the 2022 midterm, and the picture is becoming more and more murky as we get closer to history.
Usually, mid-term Follow a simple pattern
. The White House party is losing seats in Congress (especially in the House of Representatives). This is especially the case when current president
The approval rate is less than 50%. Biden’s approval rating is less than 40%.
Until now universal suffrage for congress
getting tighter. The three-point Republicans who were held captive in May are now completely gone. (Universal suffrage typically asks respondents some form of the following question: “If elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?”)
This is unusual. Often, hard party improve its position
in universal suffrage over the mid-term cycle.
Uncertainty in the national environment can be linked to what voters feel Important issues today
. Yes, the economy is issue #1. And yes, inflation is still historically high. This has reduced real disposable income (that is, the money Americans have to spend).
However, there are aspects of the economy that are very good or at least improving. We are associated with lowest unemployment rate
In more than 50 years. Stock market higher
. gas prices Down
From the height of June.
Moreover, there are other issues at play besides the economy. Abortion may not rank as high on a voter’s priority list as the economy, but more Americans than at any time since at least 1984 say it’s a major problem.
We saw last week that abortion can motivate voters. Democrats have seen a massive increase in voter turnout in Kansas compared to every other primary this season so far.
The answer to the question of who will control Congress next year is also muddled in another way: The House and Senate may be controlled by different parties.
Democrats Parliament is likely to lose
Even with the improvement of their national image. They just have so much exposure.
However, the Democrats are little more than a minor underdog in their efforts to retain control of the Senate. We’ve seen good polling of them lately in battlefield nations like Georgia
And the Pennsylvania
. These same polls reveal that Republicans have had trouble naming unpopular candidates.
The bottom line is that the people running are going to get through the exciting final three months of the 2022 campaign.
Your short encounters: Football has begun
1 sport in America kicked off Thursday, with the first pre-season game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Las Vegas Raiders broadcast nationally on NBC.
And despite it being a totally meaningless relationship, more than 5 million people tuned
. This is a small audience considering the number of people who watch regular season matches. But in a sign of just how strong the NFL brand is, the game was by far the highest-rated show of the night.
Just remember: pre-season doesn’t matter. The the last two teams
For losing every regular season game in a season, I won every preseason game.
Drinkers and non-drinkers actually agree
: a New Gallup Poll
It appears that 75% of Americans believe that alcohol has a negative impact on society. This includes 85% of alcohol drinkers and 71% of non-drinkers.
owning an electric car
While 67% of Americans would prefer offering incentives to increase the use of hybrid and electric cars, only 42% said they were at least somewhat likely to buy one the next time they buy a car, according to Pew Research Center Poll
. Only 16% were very likely.
winter is coming
: With heat intensifying across much of the continental United States, winter storm warnings were active for Alaska this weekend. It’s a sign that summer can’t last all year long. After all, we I lost more than 20 minutes of sunlight
At the end of the day in New York City for the past few months.