August 12, 2022


Tom Brady should be over soon, right?  ... the correct?

Tom Brady should be over soon, right? … the correct?
picture: Getty Images

A tale as old as time, a song as old as the rhyme: “Brady will fall this year.”

Much like Samuel L. Jackson’s character, Jules, at the end of “Pulp Fiction” people have been saying this shit for years, but year after year Brady’s deniers come out of the woods throwing out the most horrific nonsense and disrespect. Whether it was Max Kellerman and “cliff theory“In 2016, or The Miami Dolphins allegedly picks Ryan Fitzpatrick More than Brady in 2020, the three-times MVP continues to defy expectations at every step. But, after a year of leading the league in yards, touchdowns and completions, all while finishing second in the MVP vote, this is It will be the season when we see the retreat!

According to Caesars’ Sportsbook’s editorial content writer, Max Meyer, a pirate win under the age of 11.5 is the lopsided bet at Caesar’s as 87.8 percent of bettors believe Brady won’t reach 12 wins in 2022.

Well, let’s break this down from a basic point of view. The first thing I want to point out is that Brady was very confident in his abilities Ready to go to Miami Dolphin, who arguably receive a worse team, definitely a worse offensive line, and definitely a worse defense, they’re definitely in a tougher department, and they’ve got a junior coach – all at 45. Yes, I know he wants to be with his family, but Brady wants too the win. He loves winning, and was willing to abandon the team that won the Super Bowl with him in order to play with an objectively worse attack in a harder division. This should tell you everything you need to know about his confidence in his abilities this season.

That’s just Brady though. There are other factors related to how well the team will perform next season. The pirates are clearly worse off than they were a year ago. The team has lost goalkeeper Alex Capa, goalkeeper Ali Marbet, Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Antonio Brown, and there’s a good chance wide receiver Chris Goodwin will miss time, plus he’s rehabilitating an ACL tear. There are also fears of injury due to left tackle Tristan kicks after he had to succumb Ankle surgery during qualifying last year. The Bucs may not have replaced all those losses, but the additions of Russell Gage and Julio Jones reduce potential damage in the wide receiver position, and hopefully second-round rookie guard Luke Goedeke will also cement any holes that might be left when Marbet retirement. There are still some gaps, but nothing that cannot be overcome as long as injuries do not destroy the talent of the team.

The defense remained more or less the same. Certainly, the Jordan Whitehead’s absence It’s going to hurt, especially after the massive impact it showed last year, but then again, that’s not a loss the Bucs can’t overcome.

Let’s think about their schedule now. The Bucs will play eight games against playoff teams starting in 2021 this season (the Cowboys, Bengals, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams, Packers, Chiefs and Steelers). While only four of these games will be at home, the four that will be on the road will be against the Cowboys, Steelers, 49ers and Cardinals – arguably the four worst teams on this list. I also don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that every one of these teams (except maybe 49 players) got worse during the off-season. Additionally, the Cardinals game will take place in December. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will drop in late October, so we know Keeler Murray won’t be at his full potential.

The Buccaneers have some other challenging games to play, especially against Ravens, Browns, and Saints. Obviously, the Bucs and Saints are going home with each other because they’re in the same department. As for the Browns and Ravens, the Bucs will have to face Baltimore in a short week (Thursday night football), but the game will be in Tampa. We don’t know who the Browns quarterback will be when the Bucs face Cleveland in Cleveland, but even if Deshaun Watson is able to enter the field for this game, it will be against the Bucs coming out of their farewell week. They will be fresh and relaxed. Meanwhile, Brown will be out of a road match against Buffalo. They may be severely beaten.

Sure, the Saints might have a Brady number. So, let’s say the Saints win both games. Brady also struggles early in the seasons, right? So, let’s say he went 2-2 to start the season. The Bucs will defeat Falcons, Steelers, and Panthers. Suppose they lost to crows and rams. That’s already four losses, and a fifth is coming up against the Saints three weeks later. They’ll beat the Seahawks, probably beat the Browns given everything you said in the last paragraph (also a great game because the Bucs defense stifles against running), lose to the Saints, defeat the 49ers (unless Trey Lance hits expectations from the water), and then have two tough games against the Bengals. And the Cardinal before ending the season against the Panthers and the Hawks. By my estimation, the Buccaneers floor is 10-7, which is a game and a half lower than where Caesar’s is set over-under. However, let’s say they beat the Saints once this year (which I don’t think is impossible). They probably beat the Cardinals anyway. They can beat Bengals, Rams, and Packers too. They can rise to 14-3, two and a half times higher than where the oversampling is set.

I don’t guarantee the Bucs will win 12 or more games next season. Like I said, I can see them dropping to 10-7. However, for 87.8 percent of bettors assuming the Buccaneers won’t win 12 matches or more, that means the Bucs are in a much worse position now than they were a year ago. In his two years in Florida, the Bucks’ worst record was 11-5. This is during a 16-game season. It is very likely that they could have won 12 matches if they played a table of 17 matches in 2020.

I think 11.5 wins is a solid place to put the increase in the Bucs’ win total in 2022. However, I would expect a roughly 50-50 split on this issue, not the nearly 90-10 we are currently seeing. Brady has never fallen for the past, and while that day will eventually come, what has he done to make us assume it will come this year?



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