August 8, 2022


On June 18, Bitcoin slumped to a low of $17,622 on Binance, and the community has been in deep discussions ever since if this is the bottom.

According to an analyst from cryptocurrency resource CryptoQuant – the bottom may not be there yet, but we are on the cusp of shaping it.

  • Tomáš Hančar – Analyst at Encoder quantity – open That LTH SOPR 20-day SMA indicates that we’ve hit “1/3rd on potential lows.”
  • The above indicator is short for the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Long-Term Profit Spent Profit Ratio (LTH SOPR).
  • The data shows that this ratio has spent about three months below the value of the neutral level “one”, which, according to the analyst, is a third of what it usually takes to reach the bottom.

I have measured historical bottoms/roughly cyclic accumulations and AVERAGE (which includes less than 2 months in March 2022) should be looking at a football field of about 250 days of bottoming.

  • The analyst goes even further, including the “smoothing” line of the 20-day moving average of the indicator.

As far as the 20-day moving average smoothing line is technically concerned, between July 10-14 we saw what appears to be a bounce off the actual LTH SOPR 2020 low, and coincidentally not too far from the 0.49 level, which represented the lows in Both the 2015 and 2018/2019 periodic troughs.

img1_btc-lthsoprcchart
Source: CryptoQuant
  • In conclusion, he thinks it’s time to start expanding, but cautiously, “just in case we get another chance to buy under 20k”.
  • It’s been about 47 days since the last drop, so he thinks it’s best to make sure that the potential breakout scenario is covered as well.
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