August 17, 2022

Democrats are buoyed after the pro-choice victory in an abortion referendum in Kansas Tuesday, but only a few House seats are up for election in November in states where abortion is voted on.

Kansas voters dealt a blow to the pro-life movement on Tuesday when they overwhelmingly chose not to amend the state constitution to specify that there is no right to abortion. Some forecasters have assumed the result is a sign of Democratic momentum in the 2022 midterm elections, but there are only five other states with abortion referendums scheduled for November, and very few competitive races within them.

Americans will go to the polls to decide the future of abortion in their states of California, Vermont, Montana, Kentucky and, most likely, Michigan. None of these states are scheduled to participate in competitive races in the Senate, and there are only three House seats currently held by Democrats that have been designated as “eliminations” by Cook the political report.

Polls have indicated for months that Republicans are virtually guaranteed to take back the House, with a strong chance of taking the Senate as well, halting Biden’s legislative agenda in its tracks for the remaining two years of the president’s first term. Some Democrats viewed the Kansas result as a possible sign of a turning in the wind after the Supreme Court dropped Roe v. Wade in June.

Robert Reich chirp that “Kansas is the beginning” and issued a warning to anti-abortion politicians for the month of November. Stacy Abrams, the Democratic candidate for governor of Georgia, He said That Georgians should come in November to save abortion after KS “showed us what’s possible”. Reuters Posted a piece Alleging that Kansas presented the party with an “abortion guide” before November.

But the numbers simply aren’t there, unless there is a shocking poll error in favor of the Democrats. FiveThirtyEight CURRENT PROJECTS Republicans would win a majority of 27 seats, with Democrats slipping from the current 220 seats to just 204. There aren’t nearly enough competitive seats in states where abortion is on the ballot to make up the difference. (Related: ‘We’re following the law here’: Reporter confronts Jean-Pierre over Biden’s executive order surrounding abortion)

Even expanding the classification of races from “exclusions” to races that Republicans and “lean” Democrats do not reach. By those criteria, there are still only seven races in which Democrats defend a seat in an abortion referendum — four in California and three in Michigan.

Democrats claimed ‘abortion is on the ballot’ in November – and it emerged as a common talking point from the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi for Connecticut age. Chris Murphy. In fact, this only applies to a small portion of the American electorate, not enough to save the Democratic majority in the midterm elections.

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